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EU Enlargement and (Temporary) Migration: Effects on Labour Market Outcomes in Germany

EU Enlargement and (Temporary) Migration: Effects on Labour Market Outcomes in Germany

EU Eastern Enlargement elicited a rise in (temporary) labour market-oriented immigration to Germany starting in May 2011. Taking into account that not all immigrants stay permanently and that outmigration flows are selective, this paper classifies recent EU immigrants into "new arrivals" and "stayers" drawing on administrative social security data (2005-2017). This novel strategy allows us to separately identify their potentially opposing short- and medium-run effects on labour market outcomes in Germany. We find a transitory negative wage effect among natives, particularly at the bottom of the wage distribution; and a permanent positive effect on native full-time employment.

Date: , -
Type of Event
Webinar
Event Category
Online
Main organizer/s
UNU-MERIT
Target Audience
All
Language
Geographic Scope
Country
Germany
Regions
Sub Regions
Western Europe
Workstream Output
No
Regional Review Process
No
Cross Cutting Theme
Status
Published

EU Enlargement and (Temporary) Migration: Effects on Labour Market Outcomes in Germany

Date: , -

EU Eastern Enlargement elicited a rise in (temporary) labour market-oriented immigration to Germany starting in May 2011. Taking into account that not all immigrants stay permanently and that outmigration flows are selective, this paper classifies recent EU immigrants into "new arrivals" and "stayers" drawing on administrative social security data (2005-2017). This novel strategy allows us to separately identify their potentially opposing short- and medium-run effects on labour market outcomes in Germany. We find a transitory negative wage effect among natives, particularly at the bottom of the wage distribution; and a permanent positive effect on native full-time employment.


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