EU Enlargement and (Temporary) Migration: Effects on Labour Market Outcomes in Germany
EU Eastern Enlargement elicited a rise in (temporary) labour market-oriented immigration to Germany starting in May 2011. Taking into account that not all immigrants stay permanently and that outmigration flows are selective, this paper classifies recent EU immigrants into "new arrivals" and "stayers" drawing on administrative social security data (2005-2017). This novel strategy allows us to separately identify their potentially opposing short- and medium-run effects on labour market outcomes in Germany. We find a transitory negative wage effect among natives, particularly at the bottom of the wage distribution; and a permanent positive effect on native full-time employment.