Linkages between climate change, human mobility, and security are complex, multidirectional, and non-linear. The adverse effects of climate variability and extreme weather events on climate-sensitive, agricultural-based livelihoods can impact migrant agency and decision making, force people to move, or conversely, trap them in one place, even when it is unsafe to remain. Such diverse impacts on mobility, in turn, may shape human security risks, and mitigate or amplify the potential for conflict to occur in origin and destination areas. While the relationship between climate-related mobility and conflict is difficult to measure and remains a matter of much debate, it is generally recognized that it has complex political, social, economic, and environmental consequences. Some groups are more vulnerable than others. Class, gender, age, and ethnicity, among other identities, determine the extent of vulnerability of certain population groups. Women, youth, and ethnic minorities often bear the worst human security consequences of climate change and other related crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, due to existing inequalities, marginalization, and colonial legacies. Furthermore, pressure on increasingly scarce natural resources, subsequent food insecurity, the declining viability of natural resource-based livelihoods, economic competition, institutional fragility, lack of social cohesion, and existing tensions can create a perfect storm, making conflict more likely.

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