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Summary
The QuantMig Migration Scenarios Explorer gives access to the migration scenarios assumptions and results for 15 simulated scenarios of future population change in for 31 European countries from 2020 to 2060, as well as derived analytical indicators. The scenarios concern population in 31 European countries by age, sex, place of birth, educational attainment and labour force participation by migration scenarios of high migration events published in: M Potančoková (2023), Discussion paper & policy brief: scenario results. QuantMig Project Deliverable D10.1.
A microsimulation model was used to simultaneously project the population of all 31 countries by 13 socio-demographic characteristics. The QuantMig Migration Scenarios Explorer features 15 scenarios: the Baseline scenario and 14 scenarios of high migration events from different world regions (corresponding to twice-in-a-century frequency of occurrence). You can learn more about the model, its modules, parameters and underlying data in: G Marois, M Potančoková and M González-Leonardo (2023) QuantMig-Mic microsimulation population projection model. QuantMig Project Deliverable D8.2.
In the Scenarios Explorer tool, the "Immigration flows" tab is useful for visualising immigration from different world regions into the EU+ countries projected in the Baseline scenarios, as well as for various high migration events. The "Pyramids", "Indicators" and "Maps" tabs visualise the results of the projected scenarios. The Explorer is accompanied by a comprehensive User Guide.
Of course, the scenarios are inherently uncertain and present only a few of the many possible futures, for a small selection of migration flows concerning Europe. The scenarios are intended as planning tools, to illustrate the consequences of different migration assumptions. These assumptions can either describe the continuation of past migration trends, or various high migration events, which approximate some of the underlying uncertainty.
Disclaimer: This practice has been funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 870299 QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy. This document reflects the authors' views and the Research Executive Agency of the European Commission are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.
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Key Lessons
An alternative approach for designing scenarios, at a higher level and thus less resource intensive, involves moving away from drivers and focusing on the magnitude of unforeseen events by looking at features of probability distributions of past series of migration estimates.
Baseline scenario results confirm that international migration plays a key role in population change in Europe. Migration exchange with the rest of the world’s regions will gain even more prominence against the backdrop of declining intra-European migration due to population ageing, smaller young cohorts, and reducing intensity of emigration from newer member states.
Alternative scenarios show that even high-migration events do not leave a lasting imprint on the European working-age population size and projected total labour force unless high immigration persists. High-migration events followed by persistent flows only slightly alter the projected working-age population and labour force trajectories. That can happen only if the high-migration event is triggered from a region with existing migration ties to the destination country.
Confirming earlier findings, to slow down population ageing and stabilise labour force dependency ratios in Europe, significantly higher and sustained immigration would be needed than can be reasonably envisaged. Labour force decline, however, is not inevitable and can be less substantial than the projected working-age population decline.
(After: White Paper on Migration Uncertainty, https://bit.ly/migration-uncertainty)
Recommendations(if the practice is to be replicated)
In setting scenarios, as in forecasting, there is a need to distinguish between different types of flows that are characterised by different uncertainty levels, and to provide a systematic way of quantifying the underlying narratives.
A practical option for scenario setting is to use selected quantiles from the upper tails of the probability distributions of estimates, which can help to approximate the possible magnitude of migration events of various frequencies, for example, once-in-a-decade or twice-in-a-century.
In our scenarios, high-migration events would have to be of a very large magnitude to leave an imprint on labour supply and long-term demographic trends. As a result, the power of migration to change the fundamentals of labour force dynamics is limited. This needs to be recognised in the policy arena.
Inclusive policies are paramount, given that the share of the non-EU+ foreign-born population is expected to double and in some main destination countries to reach 30–40% of the total population by 2060 according to the baseline scenario.
(After: White Paper on Migration Uncertainty, https://bit.ly/migration-uncertainty)
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*References to Kosovo shall be understood to be in the context of United Nations Security Council resolution 1244 (1999).