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Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration

This World Bank report, which focuses on three regions, finds that climate change will push tens of millions of people to migrate within their countries by 2050. Without concrete climate and development action, just over 143 million people—or around 2.8 percent of the population of these three regions—could be forced to move within their own countries to escape the slow-onset impacts of climate change. It is one of the few reports on this topic and currently being updated.

This report presents a novel approach for scenario-based projections of internal climate migration up to 2050 for Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America, in order to provide a baseline for climate-resilient development planning at scale. Its novelty lies in the innovative modeling approach and the explicit illustration of scale, timing, and spatial distribution across regions. The three focus regions were selected because they provide contrasting climatic, livelihood, demographic, migration, and development patterns with differentiated vulnerability to climate risks.

*References to Kosovo shall be understood to be in the context of United Nations Security Council resolution 1244 (1999).